Analysis projects date for COVID-19 to peak in Nevada: April 20

> A microscopic image of COVID-19, the virus causing the coronavirus. Photo by NIAID-RML | Flickr/CC BY 2.0

The third week of April.

That’s when the coronavirus could peak in Nevada, according to a state-by-state data analysis from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine.

Deaths in the U.S. “are likely to persist into July, even assuming people protect themselves and their communities by strongly adhering to social distancing measures and by taking other precautions advised by public health officials,” IMHE said in a statement announcing the projections.

Debbie Birx, the coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, pointed to the IMHE’s projections Sunday during the same briefing during which President Trump announced social-distancing guidelines would be extended at least until the end of April.

IMHE projects daily deaths will peak at 19 per day in Nevada on April 21 and April 22. For the third week of April, the IMHE trajectory estimates COVID-19 deaths in Nevada could range from as few as 11 per day to as many as 25.

The data analysis projects a total of between 371 and 786 deaths in Nevada by August 4, with the most likely projection at 568.

“Peak resource use” at Nevada hospitals is projected to occur April 20, when the IMHE analysis estimates Nevada will need 293 ICU beds but have only 183 ICU beds available. However, the projections range from as few as 191 beds will be needed, to as many as 411.

As the virus peaks, Nevada will need 234 ventilators, according to the projections, although the need ranges from 153 to 329.

IMHE’s analysis projects that nationally, 81,000 people will die from COVID-19 in the U.S., with estimates ranging from 38,000 to 162,000 deaths.

“Our estimated trajectory of COVID-19 deaths assumes continued and uninterrupted vigilance by the general public, hospital and health workers, and government agencies,” said IMHE Director Dr. Christopher Murray. “The trajectory of the pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions.”

Hugh Jackson
Editor | Hugh Jackson has been writing about Nevada policy and politics for more than 20 years. He was editor of the Las Vegas Business Press, senior editor at the Las Vegas CityLife weekly newspaper, daily political commentator on the Las Vegas NBC affiliate, and wrote the then-groundbreaking Las Vegas Gleaner, which among other things was the only independent political blog from Nevada that was credentialed at the 2008 Democratic National Convention. He spent a few years as a senior energy and environmental policy analyst for Public Citizen, and has occasionally worked as a consultant on mining, taxation, education and other issues for Nevada labor and public interest organizations. His freelance work has been published in outlets ranging from the Guardian to Desert Companion to In These Times to the Oil & Gas Journal. For several years he also taught U.S. History courses at UNLV. Prior to moving to Las Vegas, he was a reporter and then assistant managing editor at the Casper Star-Tribune, Wyoming’s largest newspaper.