Biden up by 6 in NYT/Siena Nevada poll

early birds
Voters at the Desert Breeze Community Center polling place, Oct. 19. (Photo: Jeniffer Solis)
early birds
Clark County early voters at the Desert Breeze Community Center polling place on Oct. 19. (Photo: Jeniffer Solis)

A New York Times/Siena College poll released one week before Election Day has Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in Nevada by six points, 49 percent to 43 percent.

Nevada is polled infrequently compared to other so-called battleground states, but the poll results published Tuesday are in keeping with previous Nevada polls, including the most recent NYT/Siena poll of Oct. 7, which had Biden leading Trump 48 to 42 percent. Biden has consistently led Trump in Nevada polling.

In a September NYT/Siena poll, Biden led Trump 46 to 42 percent.

The poll published Tuesday was conducted Oct. 23-26. It surveyed 809 likely voters, and the margin of error is +/- 3.8 percent. The NYT/Siena poll has an “A+” rating from the polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight.

Nearly two-thirds of those surveyed said they had already voted.

“With still a week until election day, a whopping 65 percent of Nevadans have already pulled the proverbial lever and made their choice,” said Don Levy, Director of the Siena College Research Institute. “While three-quarters of Democrats have already voted, so, too, have six in ten Republicans and independents. Half of voters under 30 have already voted, as have three-quarters of those over 65.”

Among Nevadans who have already voted, Biden enjoys a “commanding” 17 point lead, 55 percent to 38 percent, Levy said. “Those who’ve yet to vote favor Trump by 14 points, but they only account for about one-third of voters,” he said.

With so much of the electorate’s votes already cast, “the issue of getting out voters for the final push becomes a little more challenging for the campaigns. Kind of like trying to pick out only the green M&Ms from a freshly opened bag,” Levy said.

Hugh Jackson
Editor | Hugh Jackson was editor of the Las Vegas Business Press, senior editor at the Las Vegas CityLife weekly newspaper, daily political commentator on the Las Vegas NBC affiliate, and author of the Las Vegas Gleaner political blog. Prior to moving to Las Vegas, he was a reporter and editor at the Casper (Wyoming) Star-Tribune.