Home prices projected to drop in Las Vegas, riskiest market in the nation

Looking west-northwest from a hill in Henderson. (Nevada Current file photo)
Looking west-northwest from a hill in Henderson. (Nevada Current file photo)

Las Vegas and Henderson rank as the riskiest real estate markets in the nation in a new report from CoreLogic, a leading analyst, because of the high rate of serious delinquencies in Southern Nevada and the area’s high unemployment rate.

CoreLogic is betting with 70 percent certainty that home prices in Southern Nevada fall by 7.8 percent by July of 2021.

Prices in San Diego are expected to increase by 5.8 percent during the same time, evidence of increasing fluctuation in the real estate market.  

The report reflects the Current’s reporting in July that home buyers are seeking spaces to accommodate students attending school from home as their parents earn a living from home, as well.

“For example, home prices in Nassau and Suffolk counties on Long Island experienced an annual gain of 4.3% in July, as residents continue to migrate away from more densely populated areas like the New York-Jersey City-White Plains metro, which recorded only a 0.4% increase,” the report says. 

America’s mortgage delinquency rate is at its highest point in five years, according to another report from CoreLogic. 

In June, the valley had the third-highest rate of serious delinquencies in the nation among the ten largest metropolitan areas. 

Nevada has the third highest rate of serious mortgage loan delinquencies, defined as 90 days or more past due, including foreclosures, according to CoreLogic. 

The serious delinquency rate increased in all states in June over last year, with COVID “hotspots” hit hardest, according to the report. 

New Jersey led the year-to-year increase in serious delinquencies — up 3.7 percentage points to 5.8 percent.  New York’s rate of 6.4 percent was up 3.6 percentage points.  In Nevada the serious delinquency rate climbed 3.4 percentage points to 4.6 percent.  

The Las Vegas-Henderson area has the third highest delinquency rate among the ten largest metropolitan areas in the nation at 5.3 percent.  Miami is first (7.1 percent) followed by New York-Newark-Jersey City (6.7 percent).

Nationally, 7.1 percent of mortgages were delinquent by at least 30 days or more in June, a 3.1 percentage point increase in the overall delinquency rate compared with June 2019.

In Nevada, where one in five people were unemployed in June, the overall delinquency rate was 8.9 percent. 

CoreLogic predicts that without government intervention, serious delinquency rates could nearly double from June levels by early 2022. 

Dana Gentry
Senior Reporter | Dana Gentry is a native Las Vegan and award-winning investigative journalist. She is a graduate of Bishop Gorman High School and holds a Bachelor's degree in Communications from the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. Gentry began her career in broadcasting as an intern at Channel 8, KLAS-TV. She later became a reporter at Channel 8, working with Las Vegas TV news legends Bob Stoldal and the late Ned Day. Gentry left her reporting job in 1985 to focus on motherhood. She returned to TV news in 2001 to launch "Face to Face with Jon Ralston" and the weekly business programs In Business Las Vegas and Vegas Inc, which she co-anchored with Jeff Gillan. Dana has four adult children, a grandson, three dogs, three cats and a cockatoo named Casper.